As Congress teeters on the edge of a government shutdown, there may be more at risk for the Trump administration than the loss of appropriations.
White House officials are dealing with the double bind of trying to negotiate an increasing number of initiatives with a tepid Congress or face the unthinkable outcome of triggering a government shutdown with the GOP in charge of both the legislative and executive branches.
After trying to haggle for funding for the proposed border wall and potentially eliminate Affordable Care Act subsidies as part of his budget negotiations, Trump backed off both the proposals when they met with resistance from congressional Democrats.
With Congress crafting a short-term continuing resolution to extend budget talks until May 5, the White House may have few cards left to play in an increasingly poor hand.
"They've really got themselves in a situation now where it would be disastrous for them to let the government shut down," said Don Kettl, a professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
"Because it would not only be seen as a failure of their ability to govern, but also even in their ability to make their short-term deals stick."
Whether Congress can pass a CR that will last until appropriation negotiations being in earnest in September could have a large impact on a slate of initiatives the White House has moving forward.
With the recent unveiling of the administration’s tax plan, a new iteration of health care reform and a massive reorganization of the federal workforce on the table, a fumble on budget negotiations could have imperil on the administration's management agenda.
"They’ve punted on major priorities, which disadvantages the president in future negotiations," said Robert Shea, a principal at Grant Thornton and a former associate director for administration at the Office of Management and Budget.
"There’s nothing that Donald Trump is more closely associated with than the wall, so to compromise on that means it's not clear what principles are so sacrosanct that they would be so insistent on and would not be subject to negotiation."
Past presidents have faced early challenges in negotiating with Congress, even when their party was in control of it.
In 1993, when then-President Clinton was seeking to get an omnibus package of tax increases and spending cuts, the bill barely squeaked out of the Democratic House before passing the Senate in a 50-50 tie broken by his vice president, Al Gore. Six Democrats defected in that vote.
But Clinton wasn’t facing the threat of a government shutdown, which has raised the stakes not only for the perception of Trump’s ability to govern, but also how he will negotiate going forward.
"The White House will have to renew its insistence on priorities, whatever they are, in the new appropriations," Shea said. "It will shock the system if there’s not the same flexibility the next time around."
John Cooney, a former OMB counsel and current partner at Venable LLP, said the current negotiations were an early test of the White House's bargaining skills on Congress before heading to the main event of fiscal 2018 negotiations this fall.
"The administration and the two houses of Congress are in the process are establishing what their priorities are for the appropriations process," he said. "I like to think of this as Spring Training, it’s like a real game, but everyone understands that the real issues remained to be resolved come playoff time in October."
Shea agreed that the tables could well turn in the White House’s favor come fall, depending on how it handles those budget negotiations, which represent an integral foundation to initiatives like the reorganization plan.
The current budget negotiations "puts those in jeopardy," he said. "But there’s nothing to suggest that this is all carved in stone. They will just have to be more disciplined or strict going forward if those initiatives are going to be successful as part of the budget process."
